Three episodes of Stargate SG-1's tenth season and three episodes of Stargate Atlantis's third season have aired as of today, and we have ratings for two weeks. For those who haven't read GateWorld's news story on this yet, here's how they fared:

SG-1 "Flesh and Blood" - 1.4
SG-1 "Morpheus" - 1.6

Atlantis "No Man's Land" - 1.5
Atlantis "Misbegotten" - 1.6

For perspective, SG-1 started in the mid 1.x range when it moved to SCI FI four years ago, and steadily grew to a weekly average of over 2.0. It was SCI FI's first show ever to do that. Last year the average waned, but just a little considering the major cast and story changes, to a 1.8. Atlantis premiered two years ago to a record 3.2 rating, then settled into a nice routine in the low 2.x. Last year's average was also down a little, to 1.9.

All TV shows, of course, live and die by the ratings. And no, that isn't usually very fair. SCI FI doesn't really care how many people worldwide are watching the show; they are a U.S. cable network, and what matters to networks here is what they can charge for advertising. Their long-term goal is obviously to improve the standing of their network, not to safeguard the success of Stargate.

So people who watch the new seasons later in Canada, or the United Kingdom, or Germany or France or Italy or Australia, don't matter to SCI FI Channel, which is the network that determines whether the shows are renewed or cancelled. People who buy the DVDs don't matter a lick to SCI FI (though we matter very much to MGM/Sony, who own the show and make the money from sales). People who download don't matter. And people who TiVo the show and watch days later matter very, very little.

In short, Stargate's worldwide popularity as a science fiction series will help the franchise's overall health, but ultimately it won't impact the renewal decision.

Yeah, the ratings are pretty bad so far. But they came up in week two, which is a good sign. I hope and expect them to continue to rise, up to about the 1.8 mark -- at or just below last season's weekly average.

Where did all those people go? Are they out playing in the sunshine? Going to movie theaters? Watching other networks? Are they just tired of the Stargate formula? Has Battlestar Galactica been carrying Stargate for a year? I'm sure there are a lot of contributing factors, and it is unhelpful to pin the blame on any one factor.

But the question ultimately on the minds of fans is: Will the shows be cancelled? If their ratings continue to run so low, I do think there is a good chance of at least SG-1 getting the axe next year. (But, as I said, I am expecting the season average to rise above the poor ratings of these first two episodes.) SCI FI has a good track record of cancelling great shows with solid fan bases (see also: Farscape) -- even after renewal, when no one sees a cancellation coming.

But when they make such decisions, they do it because they know they have something else on which to fall back. But they have Battlestar Galactica and its new spin-off, you say? True enough. But take note of SCI FI's master plan: according to a recent report, the cable network wants year-round original programming, so they may delay the second half of the Stargate season to March, when Galactica (which starts in October) has finished its 20-episode run. They have a lot of new shows debuting this year, and a lot more in the cooker.

Eureka premiered with excellent ratings (3.2), but its second week the expected fall-off was very steep. New show Who Wants to be a Superhero? premiered with a decent (for inexpensive, reality TV) 0.9 rating, while oddity Garth Marenghis' Darkplace bowed with a "Gosh, ya think?" 0.4 and The Amazing Screw-on Head, that animated series no one has ever heard of, earned a 0.2 rating for its premiere.

My point is that in order to cancel Stargate SG-1, SCI FI needs a lot more than Battlestar Galactica to fall back on if it wants year-round original programming. Eureka has some promise, but so far the network's only sustained hit show is Wednesday night reality show Ghost Hunters. Unless the development slate starts churning out hits, SCI FI will hold on to Stargate for as long as it can.

Yes, the ratings have started low. No worries -- they'll come up. The second half of the season is traditionally higher rated, in large part because -- suprise! -- it's not summertime. Yes, SCI FI -- fewer people watch TV in the summer. The network counter-programming strategy was made irrelevant about two years ago, when cable started taking the networks to town in the fall and networks started airing new shows in the summer. If you want better ratings for Stargate, I'd suggest you air it when your viewer base is indoors.

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